Did it seem as if there were fewer shoppers busting doors and crowding aisles over the Thanksgiving weekend, the traditional start of the holiday shopping season?
That’s because there were — 11% fewer, according to data released by the National Retail Federation.
Sales in both stores and only totaled $50.9 billion between Thanksgiving Day and the following Sunday, down from $57.9 billion in 2013. The substantial sales drop came despite many stores opening earlier on Thanksgiving day than ever before.
Shoppers Spent Less
According the the NRF data, not only were there fewer shoppers, but those people who were out over the busiest shopping weekend of the year spent less money. From Thursday to Sunday, the average shopper spent $380.95, down from $407.02, or 6.4%, from the previous year.
Online shoppers also spent less on average — only $159.99, a drop of 10.2%.
Spending Down, Economy Up
All of this comes as the US economy is heating up, unemployment is dropping, and wages are increasing.
So what gives?
NRF President and CEO Matt Shay tried to put a positive spin on the news, stating that the startling numbers simply represent a shift in the way consumers are buying products they want today.
“A strengthening economy that changes consumers’ reliance on deep discounts, a highly competitive environment, early promotions and the ability to shop 24/7 online all contributed to the shift witnessed this weekend,” Shay said. “We are excited to be witnessing an evolutionary change in holiday shopping by both consumers and retailers, and expect this trend to continue in the years ahead.”
Black Friday Fatigue
Ken Perkins, founder of Retail Metricks, an industry research firm, agreed that deep Black Friday discounting isn’t as important to consumers as it once was in the past.
“The Black Friday hype has come and mostly gone,” Perkins said, thanks to “significant changes to the way consumers shopped, retailers promoted and the general importance of the day itself.”
Another possibility is that Black Friday sales have fallen victim to their own popularity. Some shoppers may have been concerned about a repeat of the violent pushing, trampling and even rioting that occurred on previous Black Fridays. This year, many retailers reassured shoppers that they implemented new safety measures to prevent crowding and even rioting, including barricades and better crowd control protocols. But even that may not have been enough to allay some fears.
Extended Lower Prices One Possibility
One side effect of consumers spending less over the holiday weekend this year could be lower prices throughout the holiday shopping season, according to Perkins.
“The deeper discounts are an absolute entry cost to get consumers into stores and onto websites,” he said. “Deep discounts make it more difficult, however, to generate robust sales growth as more unit sales are required to make up for steep price cuts.”
Frank Badillo, chief economist for Kantar Retail, said retailers shouldn’t panic over the NRF’s gloomy numbers.
“We’re just seeing a shifting of sales,” he said. “In the end, it’s a zero-sum game overall.”
As for the NRF, it’s still sticking with its projection that overall holiday sales will grow 4.1% this year due to lower gas prices, a stronger economy and a longer holiday shopping season.